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中国2008—2012年丙肝流行规律及空间聚集性分析

Spatial clustering and changing trend of hepatitis C prevalence during 2008-2012 in China

  • 摘要: 目的 探索全国丙型肝炎发病空间聚集性,聚集区域随着时间变化规律,为识别丙肝重点防控区域提供依据。方法 采用探索性空间数据分析(ESDA),即Moran's I和Getis对中国2008—2012年丙肝监测数据在市级层面上进行全局和局部空间聚集性分析。结果 全局自相关分析发现,2008—2012年的Moran's I系数分别为0.235 9、0.230 2、0.231 1、0.254 6、0.243 6(P均<0.001);局部自相关分析显示,2008年得到56个热点区域,分别位于山西、内蒙古、辽宁、吉林、黑龙江、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏和新疆;2009年得到49个热点区域,分别位于内蒙古、辽宁、吉林、黑龙江、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏和新疆;2010年有52个热点区域,分别位于山西、内蒙古、辽宁、吉林、黑龙江、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏和新疆;2011年得到54个热点区域,分别位于山西、内蒙古、辽宁、吉林、黑龙江、河南、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏和新疆;2012年得到47个热点区域,分别位于山西、内蒙古、辽宁、吉林、黑龙江、河南、陕西、甘肃、青海和新疆。结论 中国丙肝发病率男性高于女性,具有随年龄增高趋势,发病整体上呈现一定聚集性,聚集区域主要在东北和西北地区。

     

    Abstract: Objective To explore spatial clustering,specific clustering areas,as well as changing trend of clustering areas with years for hepatitis C(HC)in China,and to provide scientific evidence for HC prevention and control.Methods Exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) including Moran's I and Getis was used to conduct spatial statistical analyses on HC surveillance data during 2008-2012 in China at city level.Results Global Moran's I coefficients were 0.235 9,0.230 2,0.231 1,0.254 6,and 0.243 6 from 2008 to 2012,respectively,and all P-values were less than 0.001 using Monte Carlo test.When local autocorrelation analysis was applied to the city level data,56 hot spot areas were detected in Shanxi,Inner Mongolia,Liaoning,Jilin,Heilongjiang,Shaanxi,Gansu,Qinghai,Ningxia,and Xinjiang in 2008;49 hot spot areas in Inner Mongolia,Liaoning,Jilin,Heilongjiang,Shaanxi,Gansu,Qinghai,Ningxia,and Xinjiang in 2009;52 hot spot areas in Shanxi,Inner Mongolia,Liaoning,Jilin,Heilongjiang,Shaanxi,Gansu,Qinghai,Ningxia,and Xinjiang in 2010;54 hot spot areas in Shanxi,Inner Mongolia,Liaoning,Jilin,Heilongjiang,Henan,Shaanxi,Gansu,Qinghai,Ningxia,and Xinjiang in 2011;47 hot spot areas in Shanxi,Inner Mongolia,Liaoning,Jilin,Heilongjiang,Henan,Shaanxi,Gansu,Qinghai,and Xinjiang in 2012,respectively.Conclusion The incidence rate of HC in the males was higher than that in the females,and increased with age.The spatial clustering of HC incidence from 2008 to 2012 was moderate and clustering areas were mainly distributed in the northeast and northwest in China.

     

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