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深圳市2008-2011年传染病自动预警信息分析

Analysis on automatic early-warning information of communicable disease in Shenzhen city, 2008-2011

  • 摘要: 目的了解2008-2011年广东省深圳市传染病自动预警运行情况,为探索完善传染病自动预警工作模式,提高预警工作质量提供依据。方法采用描述流行病学方法对2008-2011年深圳市传染病自动预警资料进行分析。结果2008-2011年;深圳市传染病自动预警信息系统共发出16 226条预警信号,经现场调查被证实为暴发/流行的事件共25起;预警信号共涉及28个病种,前5位病种依次为其他感染性腹泻病、流行性腮腺炎、丙肝、痢疾和麻疹;预警信号主要集中在5-7月和9月;预警系统灵敏度为13.09%,阳性预测值为0.15%。结论深圳市传染病自动预警系统运转正常,能够实现对霍乱等重点传染病的单病例预警工作,具有积极的现实意义,但对聚集性疫情的预警效果仍有待改进与提高。

     

    Abstract: ObjectiveTo examine the performance of communicable disease early-warning information system of Shenzhen city from 2008 to 2011,and to explore the operation mode of communicable disease early-warning for improving the quality of automatic early-warning information. MethodsDescriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the information on automatic early-warning of communicalble disease in Shenzhen during the period from 2008 to 2011. ResultsA total of 16 226 warning messages were released by the automatic early-warning information system of Shenzhen from 2008 to 2011,and 25 of them were identified as outbreaks of communicable disease by field investigation.The warning messages covered 28 communicable diseases,and the top five diseases were other infectious diarrhea,mumps,viral hepatitis C,dysentery,and measles.The warning messages were mainly released in the period of May to June and September.The sensitivity of automatic early-warning system was 13.09%,and the positive predictive value (PPV) was 0.15%. ConclusionThe automatic communicable disease early-warning information system is stable and is effective for the control of communicable diseases in Shenzhen city,but the warning efficiency of outbreak still needs to be improved in the future.

     

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